**Edited 10/22/2010** Good news and Bad news....The good news is that yesterday the NHIAA decided to do away with the ridiculous points system and obey the old system for the playoffs.
The Bad News is that all the time I spent on the post below is now poop :) We'll review again after tonight's games :) Good luck to all teams this weekend !
First the easy part. 2 things are certain! Trinity and Lebanon will be in the playoffs...and Trinity will have 1 home playoff game.
Unfortunately, Stark, MV, Kingswood and Hanover will be spectators for the playoffs. They will look to play spoiler though in their upcoming contests in the next two weeks. Kingswood plays Trinity this week and MV plays Monadnock. Stark is hosting Hanover and will be looking to avoid a winless season this year.
Now it get's a bit more involved...
Trinity and Lebanon - Trinity is a lock for at least one home playoff game. Even if they were to lose out and end the season at 7-2 and Laconia were to win out and end at 7-2 (which would leave Lebanon in 1st). Trinity would still get the home game since they'd have the same number of points as Laconia and would have won the regular season matchup.
Lebanon is a lock for the playoffs. However, it is possible that they could set up a controversial scenario with the new points system. If they were to lose their last 2 games (Plymouth and Trinity) one of which is an away game, and Laconia wins their last 2 games (which means they'd have won all their away games), that would leave both teams at 7-2. Even though Lebanon beat Laconia during the regular season, Laconia would get the home game since they'd have more points than Lebanon.
However, if Lebanon wins at least one of their last games, they lock in a home playoff game.
Now let's really get nuts....
Laconia - is at 5-2 which means they are 1 game ahead of Plymouth (who they beat in reg. season), Kennett and Monadnock. Barring a major upset by one of the lower tier teams we should be able to drive all the possible scenarios for 3rd and 4th spot, by looking at Laconia's remaining schedule. This is due to the fact that the Sachems play both Kennett and Monadnock in weeks 8 and 9 and Plymouth will basically NEED to win out to have even a chance at making the playoffs, but even then, they wil need help...I'll cover that below (again this is all barring an upset by Stark, MV or Kingswood in the final 2 weeks which would turn my brain to mud). By that I mean, Monadnock also plays MV while Kennett's other game is Kingswood, so for the sake of my sanity, let's assume they will win those games. With that in mind, let's break this down if we can:
If Laconia wins out and Plymouth wins out, that will mean Monadnock and Kennet are out with an (at best) 5-4 finish. This will also mean that if Lebanon were to lose to Trinity as well as Plymouth, the Raiders would be in 3rd place and on the road playing at Laconia in the 1st playoff game. While Plymouth would travel (again) to Manchester to face Trinity.
In the above scenario, if Lebanon were to beat Plymouth but lose to Trinity, it would mean that Plymouth, Monadnock and Kennet would all finish at 5-4. Plymouth would be out since they'd only have 21 points. Kennett and Monadnock would be tied at 22 points, but since Monadnock beat Kennett during the regular season, they would be 4th team in due to the tie break.
If Laconia were to lose to Kennett this weekend but beat Monadnock, that would mean that Kennett would win out and Laconia and Kennett would both end up at 6-3, BUT Laconia would have 28 points putting them ahead of Kennett's 27 points, since they'd beat Monad. on the road while Kennets final win would be at Home. Now, here even if Plymouth were to also win out, they'd only have 26 points since their 3 losses have all been on the road this year (extra points for road wins ya know). Are you keeping up?
Aside from that, if Laconia loses both of their final games and Plymouth wins out, that will leave Monadnock, Plymouth and Kennett all at 6-3. However, the odd team out in this scenario is Monadnock...how you say? Please do try to keep up :) In this scenario Kennett is in because they'd have 27 points. That would then of course leave Monadnock and and Plymouth at 26 points and since Plymouth beat Monadnock back in Week 1, Plymouth wins the tie break.
If Laconia beats Kennett but loses to Monadnock, that would leave 1 and 2 as Trinity, Lebanon (or vice versa). Monadnock is 4th with 26 points and Laconia is 3rd with 27.
In this scenario though if Plymouth were to beat Lebanon and win out, they'd have 26 points as well AND since they also beat Monadnock, Plymouth would replace Monadnock as the 4th playoff team.
I think I've covered all the possibilities (again barring a major upset in the final weeks), my head is a little spinning, so if I've missed something please let me know :)
Nicely done. Like you said though if an upset happens and you end up entertaining playoff hopes for some 5-4 teams, things could get even more confusing. good job though.
ReplyDeleteSeriously, I just read this 3 times and I'm still not sure I get it. I'll take your word for it though.
ReplyDeleteI had to read it 3 times to make sure I typed it right :)
ReplyDeletefor grins, ..so if the point system that placed a premium on winning away games is out, how would a possible, 3-way tie between Kennett, Plymouth, and Monadnock all with 5 wins 4 losses, be resolved? reg season: Kennett beat Plymouth, who beat Monadnock, who beat Kennett.
ReplyDeleteLOL. That is a great scenario. Though let's hope that doesn't happen because it would be a shame to have to pick out of a 3 way tie like that :( I'd say add another game and send all 3 :)
ReplyDeleteHowever, I THINK (though I could be wrong), the tie first looks at your record in regular season against the team you're tied with.
It then goes to your overall record against the teams that are in the playoffs including all the tied teams. Heh stay with me here...
So, in your example that would mean: Since Plymouth lost to Kennet, Laconia and Trinity, but in your example would have beaten Lebanon and Monadnock, they would be 2-3.
Kennett (in your example) beats Laconia and Plymouth, but has lost to Trinity, Monadnock, and Lebanon. They are also 2-3.
Monadnock beats Kennett but has lost to the rest (again they lose to Laconia in your example) leaving them at 1-4.
So Monadnock would be out and you then go back to who won the head to head matchup between the remaining 2 Kennett and Plymouth...so the WINNER IS>>>>>> Kennett getting the 4th spot by virtue of their epic streak breaking victory over Plymouth during the regular season. Again, don't quote me but I believe that's how it works.
Sounds like the point system isn't necessarily as bad as previously reported given the above scenario :p) Thanks for posting and please do correct me if I'm wrong.